Pre-app development (< mid-2019)
- “A student leaves school at the end of the year…” A classroom exercise with 10 secondary school students in Swansea, Wales, circa 1995, described here.
- 10 participants (secondary school students), no dropouts
- 4 iterations, 40 contributions
- Anonymised data analysis
- The implementation of Most Significant Change impact monitoring by a development project in northern Nigeria
- 11 volunteer participants, from across the world, 4 dropout
- 4 iterations, 37 contributions
- Online survey of desirability and likelihood of storylines
- Tree structure – original Please note this was a pre-est, so has many limitations
- Now accessible in a ParEvo view.
- Anonymised data analysis
- Brexit Britain – after failing to reach an exit agreement by March 31st, 2019
- 11 participants, from across the world, 1 dropout
- 4 iterations, 40 contributions
- Online survey of desirability and likelihood of storylines
- Tree structure – original
- Now accessible in a ParEvo view
- Anonymised data analysis
Post-app development (> mid-2019)
- Climate change developments in the year 2020 and onwards (RD)
- 11 volunteer participants, multiple countries. 3 dropouts
- 5 iterations, 43 contributions
- Now accessible in a ParEvo view
- Anonymised data analysis
- The future of storytelling
- 6 participants, part of a Community of Practice. 1 dropout
- 4 iterations, 22 contributions
- Online survey: pile sorting of storylines
- Now accessible in a ParEvo view
- Anonymised data analysis
- What the near future looks like for Clear Horizon (consulting firm)
- Not completed, distracted by Christmas 2019 🙂
- Climate change developments over the next decade (RD)
- 7 volunteer participants, part of a Community of Practice. 2 dropouts
- 7 iterations, 37 contributions
- Online survey: pile sorting of storylines
- Now accessible on a ParEvo view
- Anonymised data analysis
- Intersecting crises: Coronavirus plus (ODI)
- 10 participants, all from one organisation. No dropouts
- 7 iterations, 68 contributions
- Online survey: pile sorting of storylines
- A ParEvo of the storylines is not publicly available
- Anonymised data analysis
- Participatory scenario planning in times of uncertainty: five key lessons, A blog posting by Tiina Pasanen, 6 July 2020. ODI
- Scenario planning 2020 (ODI)
- 10 participants, all from one organisation. No dropouts
- 8 iterations, 78 contributions
- Online survey: 4 questions
- A ParEvo of the storylines is not publicly available
- Anonymised data analysis
- Alternate futures for the USA 2020+ (RD)
- 10 participants, recruited from Prolific.co (crowdsourcing research participants). No dropouts.
- 8 iterations
- Online survey: 8 questions
- Now accessible in a ParEvo view
- Process documentation and anonymised data analysis is now available
- What it means to be a UN Volunteer ( (Leitmotiv, ConsultorÃa Social)
- This ParEvo exercise is one part of a wider evaluation by IOD PARC
- The exercise involved the development of alternative histories, rather than alternative futures
- Involving 12 participants, with diverse backgrounds, self-selected from a pool of more than 1,000
- Eight iterations
- Online survey of 1000+ other volunteers
- Plus a content analysis of the storyline texts, by a specialist evaluator
- Ugandan farmers groups experiences experimenting with improved seeds ( Global Insight)
- This set of 12 face-to face ParEvo exercises was part of an evaluation
- The exercise involved the development of alternative histories (8 years), plus a more limited development of subsequent alternative futures (2 years)
- The number of participants ranged from 6 to 10, and included some illiterate farmers as well as literate farmers. Approximately 46% of the farmers were women
- While there was open discussion in the group, the identify of individual contributors contributions was anonymised
- Contact naama.razyaseef@g-insight.org for further information
- The world after COP26 (RD)
- 15 participants, recruited from Prolific.co (crowdsourcing research participants). Four dropouts in the last iteration.
- 7 iterations
- Online survey: 9 questions
- New feature: After iteration 2, an independent groups of four “Commentators” posted comments on the participants contributions
- The exercise is accessible, in progress in a ParEvo view here
- Process documentation and anonymised data analysis are being made available here
- Unpacking gender in a UN organisation (Leitmotiv, ConsultorÃa Social)
- Up to to 15 participants, being volunteer participants from within the organisation
- 7 iterations
- Independent commentators at two points in time during the 7 iterations, who posted comments on various contributions, prior to the next iteration
- Online survey of the views of participants and observers (others in the same organisation) to identify their views of the ParEvo storylines, surviving and extinct
- Face to face workshop with participants to discuss exercise results and their implications
- The future of a seed development and improvement programme, supported by an NGO
- Up to nine participants, male and female, from the donor and implementing NGOs
- 8 iterations
- Independent commentators after the second iteration
- The future risks of biotechnology – a trial exercise (CSER Cambridge)
- Up to nine participants, male and female, all with relevant but different domain knowledge
- Five iterations – this was a trial run only
- No use of Commentators or Observers
- Facilitator was accompanied by an in house evaluation specialist
- Results will not be publicly available
- Future Pathways for Governing Biological Research (CSER Cambridge)
- 11 participants, 3 female, 9 male, all with relevant domain knowledge, from multiple countries
- 8 iterations
- Three observers, no commentators
- Facilitator was accompanied by an in house evaluation specialist
- Follow up Survey Monkey survey of participants, a video meeting with all participants, and one to one video call with each participants
- Published papers expected in 2022
- Developing the science of global risk (CSER Cambridge)
- 10 participants, mixed gender, multiple countries, experts in their field
- 8 iterations covering 8 years
- Four observers (two content, two process)
- Follow up online survey and face to face group meeting
- Published paper expected in 2022
- Pathways to Uptake of Character Development Research and Innovations (Oxford Policy Management)
- 11 participants per exercise
- 6 iterations covering 2 years
- Exercises repeated every 12 months
- Solar Radiation Management and Solar Radiation Management governance (CSER Cambridge).
- 12 to 15 participants
- 10 iterations, covering 2020 to 2050
- One observer, feeding comments to the Facilitator
- Published paper expected in 2023
- Start Network. Testing an organisation’s Quality Assurance framework against multiple alterative futures (generated by other parties) – a thought experiment
- Pathways toward transforming UK water system decision making (DEFRA, UK) Now in the planning stage
- 10 to 15 participants, plus observers and commentators
- Covering the period 2023 to 2043
- International Civil Society Centre (Germany), ‘Anticipating Futures Scenarios for Civil Society Operating Space’, now in the planning stage
- Forthcoming exercises
- Results in Health (Netherlands) – as an alternative/complement to strategic planning about this organisation’s future direction, scheduled for mid-2022
- International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF). Exploring alternative futures involving strengthening social movements on gender equality and SRHR in several countries throughout the Europe
In addition to each exercise Facilitators’ own objectives, all these exercises have all been aimed at:
- Testing out the app, to find where and how it could be improved.
- Accumulating knowledge about appropriate ways of designing an exercise, which facilitators could make use of.
- Identifying different ways of analysing the data that is generated
- Identifying ways of generating / identifying implications for action
If you would like help with the design and implementation of a ParEvo exercise, on any scale, email rick.davies@gmail.com