References

Sources of ideas

• Campbell, Donald T. 1960. “Blind Variation and Selective Retentions in Creative Thought as in Other Knowledge Processes.” Psychological Review 67 (6): 380–400.

which informed my PhD thesis…

• Order and Diversity: Representing and Assisting Organisational Learning in Non-Government Aid Organisations. Ph.D Thesis. Centre for Development Studies, University of Wales – Swansea (1998)

which led to a small scale experiment in the mid-1990s…documented 10 years later…

• Davies, Rick. 2007. “Evolving Storylines: A Participatory Design Process?” Rick On the Road (blog). May 27, 2007.

and my interest in this was revived by reading Scott Page on diversity…

• Page, Scott E. 2011. Diversity and Complexity. Princeton University Press.
• Page, Scott E., Earl Lewis, Nancy Cantor, and Katherine Phillips. 2017. The Diversity Bonus: How Great Teams Pay off in the Knowledge Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

and

• Surowiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies and nations. Little, Brown.

which also prompted some reading of the literature on scenario planning

• “Scenario Planning.” 2019. Wikipedia.
• Mellers, Barbara, Philip Tetlock, and Hal R. Arkes. 2018. “Forecasting Tournaments, Epistemic Humility and Attitude Depolarization.” Cognition, October.
• Oteros-Rozas, Elisa, Berta Martín-López, Tim Daw, Erin Bohensky, James Butler, Rosemary Hill, Julia Martin-Ortega, et al. 2015. “Participatory Scenario Planning in Place-Based Social-Ecological Research: Insights and Experiences from 23 Case Studies.” Ecology and Society 20 (4).
• N. Raford, Online foresight platforms: Evidence for their impact on scenario planning & strategic foresight, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.03.008
• Amer, Muhammad, Tugrul U. Daim, and Antonie Jetter. 2013. “A Review of Scenario Planning.” Futures 46 (February): 23–40.

 

and now even more recently…

• Collective intelligence, as described by Wikipedia and elsewhere
• Literature review on collective intelligence: a crowd science perspective. Yu, C., Chai, Y., & Liu, Y. (2018). International Journal of Crowd Science, 2(1), 64–73.
• Futures Research Methods and Applications in Natural Resources,
  David N. Bengston, Journal Society & Natural Resources An International Journal Volume 32, 2019 – Issue 10

Figure 1. Three dimensions of futures research methods.

“Most futures methods are evidence-based to some degree. …. But there are limits to evidence-based approaches to studying a future that does not exist”

• and getting back to applications to evaluation …
  • Derbyshire, J. (2019). Use of scenario planning as a theory-driven evaluation tool. FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE, 1(1), e1. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.1
  • List, Dennis. 2007. “Scenario Network Mapping.” Journal of Futures Studies 11 (4): 77–96.