Sources of ideas
- Campbell, Donald T. 1960. “Blind Variation and Selective Retentions in Creative Thought as in Other Knowledge Processes.” Psychological Review 67 (6): 380–400.
which informed my PhD thesis…
- Order and Diversity: Representing and Assisting Organisational Learning in Non-Government Aid Organisations. Ph.D Thesis. Centre for Development Studies, University of Wales – Swansea (1998)
which led to a small scale experiment in the mid-1990s…documented 10 years later…
- Davies, Rick. 2007. “Evolving Storylines: A Participatory Design Process?” Rick On the Road (blog). May 27, 2007.
and my interest in this was revived by reading Scott Page on diversity…
- Page, Scott E. 2011. Diversity and Complexity. Princeton University Press.
- Page, Scott E., Earl Lewis, Nancy Cantor, and Katherine Phillips. 2017. The Diversity Bonus: How Great Teams Pay off in the Knowledge Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
- Surowiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies and nations. Little, Brown.
- “Scenario Planning.” 2019. Wikipedia.
Mellers, Barbara, Philip Tetlock, and Hal R. Arkes. 2018. “Forecasting Tournaments, Epistemic Humility and Attitude Depolarization.” Cognition, October.
- Oteros-Rozas, Elisa, Berta Martín-López, Tim Daw, Erin Bohensky, James Butler, Rosemary Hill, Julia Martin-Ortega, et al. 2015. “Participatory Scenario Planning in Place-Based Social-Ecological Research: Insights and Experiences from 23 Case Studies.” Ecology and Society 20 (4).
- N. Raford, Online foresight platforms: Evidence for their impact on scenario planning & strategic foresight, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.03.008
- Amer, Muhammad, Tugrul U. Daim, and Antonie Jetter. 2013. “A Review of Scenario Planning.” Futures 46 (February): 23–40.
and now even more recently…
- Collective intelligence, as described by Wikipedia and elsewhere
- Literature review on collective intelligence: a crowd science perspective. Yu, C., Chai, Y., & Liu, Y. (2018). International Journal of Crowd Science, 2(1), 64–73.
- Futures Research Methods and Applications in Natural Resources,
David N. Bengston, Journal Society & Natural Resources An International Journal Volume 32, 2019 – Issue 10
Three dimensions of futures research methods.
“Most futures methods are evidence-based to some degree. …. But there are limits to evidence-based approaches to studying a future that does not exist”
- and getting back to applications to evaluation …
- Derbyshire, J. (2019). Use of scenario planning as a theory-driven evaluation tool. FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE, 1(1), e1. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.1
- List, Dennis. 2007. “Scenario Network Mapping.” Journal of Futures Studies 11 (4): 77–96.